Mt Hood · Aug 28-30 · -57 days out Updated Sat Oct 24, 5:00 AM · refreshes daily at 5am

Everything is fine.

8 in 10chance the weekend is fine - clear or lightly hazy

First, a flag: the trip dates you gave are August 28-30 and today is October 24, so this is a reconstruction of a weekend that has already happened, not a true forecast. On the evidence in the pack, the likeliest outcome at the house was air that looked a little flat and smelled faintly of woodsmoke in the mornings, clearing by afternoon — annoying for a run, fine for a cabin weekend.

The real risk was not the big fire east of Mt Hood, which the mountain and the usual onshore wind mostly keep off this address, but the 13,000-acre Austin fire eighteen miles south on the same side of the crest, which could have drained smoke up the Clackamas and Sandy valleys overnight and pushed one of the three days into the unhealthy-for-sensitive-groups range.

Known now5 of 5 forecast sources already cover your dates

No horizonFire size and containment are observations, not forecasts — they can move this on any day

Decide byAug 25

What would change this

Evacuation zone at the housenone
US-26 open, Portland to Welchesopen
Air at Estacada16 · Clear
Nearest fire outside 10 miles13.9 mi · The Narrows
Wind pushing smoke our wayno - SSE at 2 mph

So what are the odds?

If we ran this weekend 100 times, here is how they would split. Hover a row to pick it out of the dots.

4 in 1039%	Clear weekend AQI 0-50 Mt Hood sharp-edged from the Welches meadow, blue sky, maybe a thin brown smudge low to the south at sunrise that burns off by nine.	nothing
4 in 1036%	Hazy but fine AQI 50-100 Milky white sky, the mountain soft at the edges, campfire smell at 7am that lifts by noon; sensitive people notice it, nobody cancels anything.	Run the cabin on recirculated air overnight, move the long hike to the morning of the clearest day, skip the hard trail run.
1 in 1015%	One smoky day AQI 100-150 Visibility a couple of miles, sun orange at midday, eyes and throat scratchy, the mountain invisible for most of one day.	Indoor day with the air purifier running, kids and anyone asthmatic stay in, drive west toward Sandy or Portland for the afternoon if someone needs relief.
1 in 1010%	Real smoke episode AQI 150+ Smoke on the ground in the river bottom, headlights on at noon, acrid smell indoors, ash flecks on car hoods.	Cut the trip short or relocate; anyone with lung or heart trouble leaves early regardless.

Clear AQI 0-50

You can see the mountain. Nobody notices anything.

Hazy AQI 50-100

Visible haze, ridgelines soften, faint campfire smell.

Smoky AQI 100-150

Distinctly smoky, orange sun, eyes sting a little.

Bad AQI over 150

Mountain invisible. You smell it indoors.

Where the fires are

Fires near the house, drawn at their real shape from the federal perimeter data, over USGS terrain. Dashed rings are distance from the house; the shaded wedge is the only direction an east wind could carry smoke here from. Point at a fire for its details.

Solid dots are fires too small to draw at this scale but whose size is known. A dashed circle would mean a fire that has been located but has no published perimeter - size unknown, not small.

Beyond this frame, and too far to threaten the house but close enough to add regional haze: Bench (67,071 acres, 45.5 mi SSE), High Lava (2,899 acres, 37.0 mi N).

An outline is only as current as the last mapping flight, which is not the same as when this page refreshed. Outlines flown — Grasshopper Sep 15 · Austin Sep 16 · The Narrows Sep 15. The oldest is The Narrows, 39 days behind. Acreage and containment are refreshed far more often than the outlines are re-flown — those figures were last updated Sep 29, 4:26 PM, so a fire may already be larger than the shape drawn for it.

Terrain: USGS 3DEP (public domain). Roads and water: © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL). Fire perimeters: NIFC.

Want to check it yourself, or see the rest of the state? The Oregonian's wildfire tracker is live and updates every 15 minutes.

Day by day

Fri Aug 28

Clear

likely 42 - could reach 118

12% chance of a smoky day

Sat Aug 29

Clear

likely 45 - could reach 125

14% chance of a smoky day

Sun Aug 30

Clear

likely 44 - could reach 124

13% chance of a smoky day

The specific odds

All three days clear37%

At least one smoky day (100+)25%

Two or more smoky days12%

At least one bad day (150+)10%

US-26 closed during the trip2%

Evacuation level at Welches4%

The one thing that would bring smoke here

Long-range wind signal unavailable this run.

When we'll actually know more

It is not one cut-off. Five sources arrive on five different dates, and the darker the strip, the more of them cover your weekend. Hover any day for the count.

Hover a dayto see the forecast we logged that morning and how much was known.

▲ Since 2026-08-10 the forecast has moved worse (+14 on the likely worst day) across 75 daily updates. Shading above shows source coverage, not this movement - hover a past day to see what we said that morning.

now	Fire size & containment how big the fires are and whether they are being held
now	Long-range ensembles (GEFS 0.5 + GEM) wind direction, 52 members · reaches 32 days out
now	ECMWF ensemble (51 members) wind direction, the sharpest ensemble · reaches 13 days out
now	Deterministic weather (16-day) day-by-day wind and temperature · reaches 15 days out
now	Air-quality / smoke model (CAMS) actual AQI at the house · reaches 6 days out

Why we think this

The instinct to point at Mt Hood as a shield is half right and half wrong: Grasshopper, at 93,971 acres and bearing E, really does sit behind an 11,250-foot barrier with the prevailing onshore flow working in the house's favor, but Austin (12,888 acres, bearing S, 18.3 miles) and The Narrows (304 acres, SSW, 13.9 miles) are on the same west side of the crest as Welches, in the Clackamas drainage, with no terrain between them and the house. That is the mechanism that sets the worst day: not synoptic transport over the mountains but overnight drainage flow and a valley inversion in the Sandy River bottom, which converts a modest nearby smoldering source into an elevated 24-hour average by morning even when the afternoon looks clean. Both of those fires reached 98% containment by mid-September, which is the normal trajectory for Oregon fires of that size and tells me they were in decline but not out during the trip window — a 12,888-acre fire does not stop producing smoke the week before Labor Day in a year with 96% drought and fuels fully cured at every elevation. Against that, the 4-year local record shows zero days over 100 in this 28-day window and a worst day of 52, and the measured season anomaly ratio of 1.05 says this record-acreage year has not actually manifested as bad air at this address — most of the 2.34 million acres burned east-side, where it does not transport here.

A normal late August here is Clear - median AQI 28 across the last 4 years. On these exact dates: 2025: 37 · 2024: 24 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 25.

We are forecasting a worst day of 56, 28 points above that base rate. That departure rests entirely on the reasoning above; judge it for yourself.

What the bad version needs:
The Austin fire (12,888 acres, bearing S, 18.3 miles, on the WEST side of the crest like the house) makes a run in fully cured fuels during an afternoon of low humidity — it was still only reaching 98% containment by mid-September, so in late August it was an open, growing fire. → A weak thermal trough or a short offshore/easterly episode (climatology says easterly flow on about 31% of member-days in this calendar window, and the ensemble field in this pack is null, so there is no departure signal either way) shuts off the marine push for 24-48 hours. → Smoke drains down the Clackamas drainage overnight and pools under a valley inversion in the Sandy River bottom at Mt Hood Village, where it sits until mid-morning and drags the 24-hour average up even though midday looks tolerable.
First visible signal: The Estacada PM2.5 monitor on the AirNow app climbing above about 60 in the 6-9am hours two mornings in a row, while the NWS Portland forecast for Welches stops mentioning onshore wind — both free and checkable on a phone. - about 2 days ahead

Key drivers, and what would change our minds

Austin fire, 12,888 acres, 18 miles due south and on the SAME side of the crest as the house — no terrain shielding, direct drainage path
Overnight valley inversion in the Sandy River bottom, which raises the 24-hour average from morning pooling even when afternoons are clear
Mt Hood plus prevailing onshore flow genuinely do shield the house from Grasshopper, the biggest fire in the pack
Measured season anomaly of only 1.05 — the record statewide acreage has not shown up as bad air at this location
East-wind ensemble is null, so no departure signal; climatological 31% easterly rate stands as the reversal risk
Climatology archive starts 2022 and excludes 2017/2018/2020/2021, so the upper tail is under-sampled rather than measured

The Estacada monitor on the AirNow app reading above 60 for two straight mornings in the week before the trip
Any new fire reported west of the Cascade crest within 30 miles of Welches, regardless of size
The Welches NWS point forecast calling east or southeast wind for two consecutive afternoons
Austin fire containment on InciWeb stalling or dropping instead of climbing toward 100%
A Level 1 evacuation notice or a Clackamas County alert touching the Mt Hood Village zone
The first real frontal rain of the season arriving before the trip — that would push me to a near-certain GO

Fires within 60 miles

13.9 mi	The Narrows SSW	304 acres · 98% contained
16.5 mi	Timber Lake/Ripplebrook Admin Rx - West SSW	size not yet reported
17.4 mi	Grasshopper E	93,971 acres · 98% contained
18.3 mi	Austin S	12,888 acres · 98% contained
20.3 mi	Austin Repair Pile Rx - West S	size not yet reported
23.0 mi	Goat Stew Rx - West S	size not yet reported
29.5 mi	Slow DXP/Lemiti Rx - West SSE	size not yet reported

The biggest hole in this forecast: 4 of the nearby fires (Timber Lake/Ripplebrook Admin Rx - West, Austin Repair Pile Rx - West, Goat Stew Rx - West and 1 more) have no size reported yet. Whether those are 300-acre creepers or 20,000-acre runners is most of the answer.

Pack this regardless

One true HEPA air purifier sized for the main room — it is the single highest-value item for a cabin weekend
N95 or KN95 masks, two per person (cloth and surgical masks do nothing for PM2.5)
Inhalers and any asthma or heart medication, in carry quantity, for everyone who uses them
A plan B indoor day: cards, a projector or laptop, groceries so nobody has to drive out
Phones preloaded with the AirNow app and the Clackamas County alert signup
Eye drops and extra water — the dry side effects of haze show up before the AQI does

If the weekend is clean you carried masks for nothing. If it is not, this is the difference between a bad weekend and a ruined one.

Watch list, and getting there

Estacada and Government Camp PM2.5, hourly, especially 5-10am - Two consecutive mornings with hourly values above 60, or any hour above 100 (AirNow app or fire.airnow.gov)
Austin fire daily acreage and containment - Acreage growth of more than ~1,500 acres in a day, or containment falling/stalling below 50% (inciweb.nwcg.gov)
Wind direction in the Welches point forecast - Forecast wind from the E/SE/S for two or more consecutive afternoons (forecast.weather.gov for 45.320, -121.956)
Smoke outlook and any new ignition within 30 miles - Any new fire west of the Cascade crest within 30 miles of Welches, at any size (Oregon Smoke Blog (oregonsmoke.blogspot.com) and the NWCC daily situation report)
Evacuation level and US-26 status - Any Level 1 notice touching the Mt Hood Village / Welches zone (Clackamas County alerts and tripcheck.com)

Sandy	19.4 mi
Brightwood	15.5 mi
Welches	14.8 mi

Distance from each point on the drive in to the nearest fire. TripCheck is the authority on closures.

If we wanted cleaner air, where would we go?

Ranked by how bad these dates have historically been at each place. The coast is not just cleaner today — it sits upwind of everything burning, so it only smokes during an east-wind reversal, which is the same event that would smoke out the house.

“Bad day / typical” is what the air actually did on Aug 26 – Sep 1 in 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 — 28 days per place. The first number is the bad day: one day in ten was worse than this. The second is the typical day, the middle of the range. We rank on the bad day rather than the typical one, because the bad day is what would spoil a weekend.

Both are converted onto the same scale as the “now” column, so every AQI figure in this table is comparable. That conversion matters more than it sounds: the model these come from runs about 2.5× high on the coast but close to true inland, so before correcting it the coast looked far worse than it is.

Place	Bad day / typical	Now	Official forecast	Next 5 days	Nearest fire
Astoria coast	19 / 16	14 Clear	Good	– steady	84 mi · High Lava
Long Beach, WA coast	19 / 17	14 Clear	Good	– steady	97 mi · High Lava
Newport coast	25 / 21	25 Clear	Good	– steady	101 mi · Austin
Welches / Mt Hood booked	30 / 22	18 Clear	Good	– steady	14 mi · The Narrows
Manzanita coast	30 / 28	33 Clear	—	– steady	87 mi · High Lava
Cannon Beach coast	31 / 27	33 Clear	—	– steady	88 mi · High Lava
Pacific City coast	32 / 29	33 Clear	—	– steady	91 mi · The Narrows
Hood River east of crest	46 / 30	27 Clear	Good	– steady	21 mi · Grasshopper
Silver Falls valley	50 / 37	36 Clear	—	– steady	31 mi · Austin
Portland valley	67 / 54	77 Hazy	Good	– steady	36 mi · High Lava
McMinnville valley	76 / 53	63 Hazy	Good	– steady	54 mi · The Narrows
Bend east of crest	78 / 45	28 Clear	—	– steady	36 mi · Bench

What each column covers, and where it comes from

Field	Period it covers	What it is
Air right now	10/24/26 4:00 PDT	Nearest EPA/AirNow ground monitor to each place, within 45 miles airnow.gov
Official forecast	issued 10/24/26 by Washington Department of Ecology	Next published outlook for that reporting area — a human forecaster's call Oregon DEQ via AirNow
Next 5 days	today's model run, covering 2026-10-28	Direction only. Copernicus CAMS global air-quality model open-meteo.com
Bad day / typical	Aug 26 – Sep 1 in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 (28 days each)	CAMS reanalysis for those exact dates, then converted to the monitor scale open-meteo.com
Scale conversion	median of 14 daily model-vs-monitor pairs, 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-22	Median of daily model-vs-monitor ratios — the bias differs by place, from 0.351 on the coast to 1.066 inland AirNow daily archive
Nearest fire	queried Oct 24 5:00 AM	Perimeter polygons of fires over 100 acres, distance to the burned edge NIFC WFIGS

Every AQI figure above is on the ground-monitor scale — the same thing your phone shows. n/a means the model and the monitors disagree so sharply at that spot that we cannot honestly place it on that scale (steep terrain inside a coarse model grid cell — the Gorge is the usual culprit); those rows are sorted by today’s reading instead.

How this is made, and what it cannot do

Fire perimeters from NIFC, evacuation zones from Oregon OEM, weather and alerts from NWS, air quality from AirNow (Estacada, 18.3 mi away). The forecast is judged by Claude Opus 5 on the live data above, sampled 5 times and pooled conservatively.

It is a judgement, never scored against an outcome. Nobody forecasts smoke this far out: NOAA's smoke model runs 48 hours and the EPA's air-quality forecast is for tomorrow. Two-to-six weeks ahead is what meteorologists call the predictability desert. Anyone giving you a number for the trip right now - us included - is giving you a base rate with a story attached.

How thin the history is. The air-quality record for this spot begins in 2022, so "normal" here is built from just 4 years (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025). In those 28 sampled days the worst single day was AQI 52, and none reached 100.

That record has never seen a bad Oregon smoke year — not 2020, when Portland sat above AQI 500 for days, nor 2017, 2018 or 2021. So the base rate below is drawn entirely from calm years, and the upper end of our range is an estimate rather than something history has shown us. It is the main reason not to read the good news too confidently.

Are these forecasts any good? Across 350 scored forecast-days, the air-quality model beat both simple baselines at 1 of 5 lead times. Where it does not, this page should not be trusted to out-guess them either.

AQI here means the highest 24-hour PM2.5 value touching a day, at the house, on the local monitor scale - the same thing your phone shows. The model's own restatement of the target: “I forecast the US AQI for PM2.5 as a 24-hour average quantity, on the local monitor scale that a phone app shows (no further bias correction applied by me), at the house at 45.320N / 121.956W in Mt Hood Village. For each calendar day I give the highest 24-hour AQI value touching that day, and 'worst day of trip' is the single largest of those three daily values — not the three-day mean.”

Updated daily at 5am. A convenience, not an authority -
if officials issue an evacuation order, follow it.